Month: October 2009

  • Halloween: OOOOHHH Scary Times!

    Hello Everyone. Weezguy will be unveiling his legendary Halloween costume this week. But first, how is everyone doing?  Anyone have a job?  Down on their luck?  I gave everyone fair warning November 2007 it was about to collapse. Click here for that entry:  http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=weezguy&nextdate=11%2f22%2f2007+23%3a59%3a59.999

    Sept 2008 (very scary last year when banks were going bankrupt everyday) I gave an update: http://weezguy.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=weezguy&nextdate=9%2f25%2f2008+23%3a59%3a59.999

    But for those of you who didn’t listen to Weezguy and succumbed to laziness and are now scrambling to survive, people want to know What’s Next? Will it get worse? Will it get better? What should I do?  Have no Fear. SUPER WEEZGUY is here!

    Ok, here’s the chart of the S and P 500 chart of the stock market in November 2007. Everything peachy right?

    snp Was I right? November 2007 indicators showed market was showing signs of a major shift (see my Nov 22, 2007 entry)

    SPX Sept 2008 I updated, pain in full swing. Told ya so, nah nah nah nah.

    Ok. so here we go  October 2009 (present day)

    sp500  

    This is the same chart as above, just updated. After September 2008, the market continued falling w/ lots of fear until it hit its low in March 2009 at point B around 660s. From March (point B) to now in October (point C) the market has pretty much bounced straight up by following the Blue line from B to C.  However, look at the Red line from point A to C.  The main trend from the market’s top at A has been steadily going down and is now also at point C.  So if you connect the red line from A to C and also the blue line from B to C, you can see they converge to form the tip of the Triangle at C.  Also, if you take the absolute top at point A to the absolute bottom at point B, and take the 1/2 way point, you get the purple 50% line which ALSO coincidentally is at point C.

    So what does this mean? Stop w/ the mumbo jumbo right? Can I get a job or not? Should I spend money on jewelry to get that girl?  Ok my little cherubs listen and learn from Uncle Weezy. Each bar on the chart above is a monthly chart meaning it takes a month to show up. We are at a very Critical point in the market. If the market can break the descending Red line, we will go up more. However, if the red line pushes the market down and we break the blue line, this market will head down again. So we have 3 things on this chart to worry about. 1. The big red downtrend line. 2. 50% retracement level.  3. Break of the Blue uptrend line.

    What to do? Well you KNOW how it always works right?  If you sell your portfolio, watch the market continue going up and you feel dumber than 15 year old left behind in a 3rd grade class.  If you DON’T sell? Then of course it comes crashing down and you feel either A) Male – being kicked in the balls like a pinata or B) Female – giving childbirth w/ no pain killers  (pick your poison).  One way is to stalk the market like you did to your Ex. Watch its every move and see which way it goes before you make your decision.  If you’re more sophisticated and want to do well no matter which way it goes, you can try some hedging strategies, or use some insurance and derivatives (this is probably what I will plan to do).

    Look at everyone around you! Are people still getting laid off? One piece of good news is that unemployment is a lagging indicator, meaning the economy has already started to turn around, and new job availability has not come yet and on its way. Bad news? It’s not here yet.  Remember, when I told you to start kissing ass at your job?  Well I guess that didn’t work since your boss probably got fired too. I heard prostitution is never out of style. Anybody worried about end of the world in 2012?  Sadly the chart show this may be a possibility.

    I don’t like to buy stocks especially in this economy, too dangerous. If you have a longer term horizon (like years)commodities may be the safer play. Gold, Silver, Oil etc. etc.

    manhattan70s Remember this pic I posted as a prediction last year?  Starting to look more true everyday huh?  If you ever want to see a picture of me? I’m the one on the floor w/ the beige trousers.

    As always, don’t listen to your parents, listen to Weezguy.  NEXT: Weezguy’s Halloween unveiling.